Author(s)

Abstract

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Sahel faces mounting human security and development challenges due to the complex interplay of diverse and growing risks in the region, including climate change, environmental degradation, food and livelihoods insecurity, weak governance capacity, conflict and violence, and displacement. To reach the crisis prevention and resilience goals set out in the UN Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS) and break away from chronic patterns of crisis, we must galvanize existing potential in the region. Decision-making must be better equipped with forward-looking analysis based on integrated data and evidence that incorporates the region’s major, cross-cutting issues and trends. Crisis prevention and resilience building is a shared responsibility that demands a wide range of expertise and collaboration across academic, policy and operational actors relevant to humanitarian action, development and peacebuilding. This includes the sharing of data and a range of methodological approaches that provide insight into the complexity of the Sahel as a foundational first step. For this reason, the inter-agency, inter-pillar Sahel Predictive Analytics project was established, from which this report has been produced.

Anticipating Risk Hotspots in the Sahel – a proof of concept

As part of its effort to promote innovation and enhance evidence-based support for sustainable development, the High-Level Committee on Programmes (HLCP) and subsequently the Chief Executives Board for Coordination (CEB) supported the initiation of a pilot cross-pillar inter-agency predictive analytics exercise, facilitated by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), at the end of 2019. The Sahel Predictive Analytics project brought together a global consortium of leading academic institutions specializing in predictive analytics and strategic foresight approaches1 to work on the nexus between climate change and other mega trends as factors contributing to new or exacerbated vulnerabilities, conflict, violence and displacement. Seeking to expand and improve current predictive models, the consortium explored how data availability and quality and its use for predictive analytics in the Sahel could be improved through a comprehensive data review process.

During over 50 discussions on data availability with UN system entities, several key data gaps were identified. The pilot thereby provides a proof of concept by demonstrating that unprecedented multi-stakeholder collaboration for data-sharing and good practice can provide much-needed insight into the problems many UN system entities and other stakeholders are facing around data-sharing. It also highlights opportunities to work beyond silos for common outcomes and cross-fertilization and could help to identify persistent data gaps and limitations of modelling work. It is the first whole-of-UN system approach of its kind, moving beyond the siloed predictive analytics initiatives of the past.

As a product of the Sahel Predictive Analytics project, this report supports the implementation of the UNISS, the United Nations Sahel Support Plan (UNSP) and the work of the United Nations Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel. The report was developed, and peer reviewed, by a consortium of agencies and research institutes to guide data-sharing, preparedness and evidence-based decision-making in the face of the growing interconnected risk landscapes in the region. The presented findings will support prioritization of resource allocation and preparedness measures by identifying where multiple risks overlap across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus allowing for well targeted anticipatory and early action. It can further support context analysis, planning, training and capacity-building, while also pointing out where additional data is needed.

The report compiles short-, medium- and long-term predictive analysis based on a range of data sources and methodologies developed from the perspective of different scientific disciplines and organizations. Taken together, they help to identify hotspots of interconnected risks across the region. The report includes promising practices and findings relating to the use of innovative data, predictive analytics and strategic foresight for the Sahel, though it is far from a complete picture of all existing modelling endeavours. The report brings together established modelling approaches across 17 areas and specifically adjusted models to the UNISS Sahel countries on projecting future violence, food security and internal climate migration. It explores possible scenarios for the future of the Sahel and can guide future predictive analytic endeavours from a methodological perspective. It is also intended to be the first iteration of a series of reports and lays the foundations for a continuous process of integrated risk and opportunity assessments and the development of integrated modelling.

The report is structured around four major risks identified as key drivers of vulnerability in the Sahel: (1) climate change, (2) food security, (3) conflict and (4) migration and displacement. For each risk, we provide an overview of the current situation in the region and then provide predictions of how those risks may change in the future under different climate change and development scenarios. We close by outlining strategic recommendations for a structural transformation of the way we work towards increased resilience.